The headline, of course, refers to the category of “What will Rob’s physical/mental state be at the end of Oscar night?” In the meantime, here’s who I think is winning, along with my preferences - ’cause dammit, I took the time to see everything (even Venus and Letters from Iwo Jima, and I’m willing to bet even Clint Eastwood’s and Peter O’Toole’s grandchildren didn’t even pay to see those).
I’m not typing out all the damn nominees. If you need it for reference, it’s here.
For further Oscar reading, I highly recommend visiting the Film Experience blog, where Nathaniel has done a comprehensive job of Smart Gay Fanboy Oscar coverage - including a “visit” from tight-grinned Oscar bridesmaid Annette Bening!
Best Picture
Prediction: In years where there’s no clear frontrunner, I find that it’s safest to bet on the movie I liked the least. This year, that’s Little Miss Sunshine.
Preference: The Depaaaahted
Best Director
Prediction: They can’t deny Scorsese again. If they do, I can picture Joe Pesci sticking Eastwood’s head in a vise and gouging out his eye, like in Casino.
Preference: Marty.
Best Actor
Prediction: Forest Whitaker. Although everyone’s going to be a little sad for one-foot-in-the-grave Peter O’Toole on the night of his eighth loss.
Preference: What a weak fucking category this year. Gosling rocked, but if he wins, he’ll probably make some self-righteous speech about Darfur. Do I lose my snob card if I admit that I thought Will Smith was brilliant?
Actress
Prediction: Helen Mirren. She’s such a sure thing that Dame Judi isn’t even showing up.
Preference: Nothing beats Kate Winslet’s bleacher freakout in Little Children.
Supporting Actor
Prediction: Eddie “I didn’t know she had a dick” Murphy
Preference: My head says Jackie Earle Haley. But Mark Wahlberg stole The Departed and is much hotter.
Supporting Actress
Prediction: Didn’t J Hud win this six months ago? I hope some enterprising cameraman gets a shot of Beyonce throwing her champagne flute against the wall and storming out of the Kodak.
Preference: Rinko Kikuchi, for providing so much more than the latest in a long string of starmaking beaver shots.
Original Screenplay
Prediction: Little Miss Sunshine, because there’s no better sign of a well-constructed screenplay than a climactic all-cast dance sequence.
Preference: Pan’s Labyrinth
Adapted Screenplay
Prediction: The Departed, which had help from Wahlberg’s ad-libbed trash talk
Preference: Little Children, with its hilarious and deeply unsettling voiceover
Foreign Language Film
Prediction: The more politically correct The Lives of Others, which I quite liked, will overtake Pan’s
Preference: Pan’s Labyrinth, which is like four great movies in one
Documentary
Prediction: An Inconvenient Truth, starring newly reborn enviro-hottie Al Gore.
Preference: The terrifying Deliver Us from Evil, followed closely by the year’s other great “What the fuck is with the Christians?” doc, Jesus Camp.
Costume Design
Prediction: Dreamgirls will be the “duh” kneejerk choice, in no small part because it was so refreshing to see Beyonce in something her mother didn’t design.
Preference: Marie Antoinette. Hello? Chuck Taylors in Revolution-era France!
Cinematography
Prediction: Children of Men is The Cinematography Movie of 2006, or even the decade.
Preference: Children of Men. It’s a match!
I am holding out hope for Water in Best Foreign Language film. I freakin’ loved that film and think it should have had nominations in Best Art Direction and maybe even Best Cinematography.
As far as Best Picture, I think there were some good performances in Little Miss Sunshine, but it is not Best Picture quality. I really enjoyed The Departed and think Scorsese deserves a Directing nod. I still need to watch Babel tomorrow. But won’t be seeing Iwo Jima (sorry Clint…). At this point, I am pulling for the Queen. All the anticipation will come to a climax on Sunday… I can’t wait.